MOVE FORWARD WITH STRONG HEART

2-4. The main two issues of the global food problem and their data verification

Up to this point, there have been two underlined portions of text: First, on page 2-1, I said that “Even though the Total World Grain actually exceeds the total grain consumption for all of the world population, many people are still dying of starvation.  This is a result of the problem of distribution of food." Second, on page 2-2, I said that “If the world population grows continuously, grain production might be unable to catch up with the increase of grain consumption in future. In such a case, Total World Grain will fall short of the amount of grain consumption for (in other words, the amount of grain demanded by) all the world population. Grain price will rise, and suffering from food shortages will spread all over the world." That is, the global food problem has, among others, its main two issues: First issue is a problem of distribution that exists now. (Herein defined as the "First Issue".) It is a main cause of the world hunger at present. Second issue is a problem of the balance between production and consumption which has not yet happened so far but has a risk to rise to the surface in the future. (Herein defined as the "Second Issue".) It is generally called as the "food crisis".

Let’s verify the reality of these two issues using actual data. The part in black text in Chart 5 below is posted from “Agricultural Outlook: Statistical Indicators”, Table 23: “World Supply & Utilization of Major Crops, Livestock, & Products” on the United States Department of Agriculture ("USDA") homepage’s Economic Research Service.  It shows the world’s production, consumption and stock amounts of wheat, coarse grain & rice after the year 2000 (the data is as of April 2010 and Chart 5 might have any gap, as USDA data could be amended).  Coarse grain means corn, sorghum, barleycorns, rye and other grains.  It also shows production, consumption and stock amounts of total grains, including wheat, coarse grains & rice. I have added some kinds of information below USDA data in red color. I have indicated the Total World Grain, which is defined in page 2-1 as “the total of the amount of grain production in the world in a particular year and grain reserves at the end of the year before”.  For example, the Total World Grain in 2009 is 2009’s production amount, 2,219 million tons, added to the ending stock at the end of 2008, 447 million tons, making 2,666 million tons. Below that, I have transferred data from the "state of world population 200x" prepared by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Further below, under the heading as “Minimum Consumption for the World Population”, I give two patterns of theoretical grain consumption amount, which is the minimum amount of grain demanded by the world population to eat for a year. Pattern A is the case in which the world population eats a bowlful of rice or the same amount of other grain three times a day for a year.  A bowlful of rice equals about 67 grams.  The grain consumption amount for a year is 67 (grams of rice a meal) times 3 (meals a day) times 365 (days) divided by 1,000 (grams/ kg), equaling 73 kilograms. The Minimum Consumption for the World Population in Pattern A is 73 kg times the world population and it is shown in millions of tons.  However, it is calculated on the very extreme assumption that no grain is used for livestock feed. On the other hand, in Pattern B, I assume that everyone in the world eats a bowlful of rice, half the beef and chicken of an average Japanese consumption (6 kg a year for beef and 5 kg for chicken).  It is said that 11 kg of feed  grain is needed a year to produce 1 kg of beef, and 4 kg of grain for 1 kg of chicken. Minimum Consumption per person, including indirect consumption by way of livestock, is about 160 kg (73 kg of rice + 6 kg of beef x 11 kg of feed + 5 kg of chicken x 4 kg of feed).  Multiply that 160 kg by the world population, and you get the figure shown in millions of tons.  That is the Minimum Consumption for the World Population in Pattern B. So, what can we see if we compare the Total World Grain with the Minimum Consumption for the World Population? http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/AgOutlook/AOTables/

Chart 5 ( as of April 2010)

From Chart 5 above, we can see that the Total World Grain (A) is more than double the amount of the Minimum Consumption for the World Population in Pattern B (C).  That means that many people are losing their lives due to food shortages even though the Total World Grain exceeds the minimum grain amount demanded by the world population.  The First Issue, that is, the problem of the food distribution is actually happening in this world right now.

So, how about the Second Issue? As we can see from Chart 5 above, the world population increases at the pace of more than 70 million people in every year.  Total World Grain is also increasing, so that the balance between Total World Grain (A) and Minimum Consumption for the World Population (C) is being maintained with a significant surplus.  Also, the balance between Total World Grain (A) and actual grain consumption for the world population (X) is also being maintained with plenty of margin, so that there doesn’t seem to be any problem at this moment. However, since expansion of cultivated acreage and intensification of grain production have their limitations, how long can we maintain the balance?  The UNFPA predicts the world population will reach about 9.2 billion people in 2050.  The Minimum Consumption for the World Population is 1,472 million tons in Pattern B.  Although this amount can be covered by the Total World Grain in 2009, 2,666 million tons, the actual grain consumption amount for 9.2 billion people might be a lot more than Minimum Consumption for the World Population in Pattern B because people also eat pork and eggs and drink milk.  FAO predicts that the grain consumption amount in 2050 might reach 3 billion tons.  (Declaration of the World Summit on Food Security held in November 2009 says, "To feed a world population expected to surpass 9 billion in 2050, it is estimated that agricultural output will have to increase by 70 percent between now and then.") If Total World Grain does not grow at the same rate, the balance of supply and demand would be lost, grain prices would soar, and even more people would suffer from food shortages. The Second Issue of the global food problem is not a reality at this point, but I have to say that the risk of it happening in the future certainly exists. ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/Meeting/018/k6050e.pdf

There are some optimistic views about the Second Issue of the global food problem.  Some people say that it is hard to believe the world food demand alone can cause the global food crisis.   I also strongly hope that we can increase the grain production amount and continue balancing it with the grain consumption amount.  We might be able to see 2050 without any problem. Even if that is the case, however, there will be no guarantee in 2060.  In other words, the Second Issue, that is, the problem of the balance between production and consumption of grain will always exist as long as we exist.  Depending on the situation, I think we may have to take this issue seriously or we can treat it lightly, from time to time.  I can not tell how the situation would be in the future, but there is definitely a risk of the Second Issue of the global food problem becoming a reality.  I believe that NOW, it's a good time for us to think it seriously as OUR ISSUE, and to take action.

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Copyright (c) Makoto Kurata, 2009